The Matildas will have to go the long way around if they’re to win the Women’s Asian Cup on home soil after Sunday’s 3-3 draw with South Korea ensured they finished the group stage undefeated, but without the goal difference to ensure top spot.

Reminiscent of the Socceroos in 2015, that unfavourable result to the Taeguk Ladies in the final group game means the home side’s path now becomes tougher. An Australia win would have seen them remain in Sydney for as long as they remained alive but in spurning that opportunity, they now return to Perth for Friday’s quarter-final against North Korea.

This circumstance made Sunday’s draw feel like a loss, but a sunnier disposition could point to the Matildas having led at halftime, and having looked the better side at stages. But there will be no comfort in drawing North Korea, FIFA’s 9th ranked women’s side, and notionally the strongest opponent the Matildas will have faced. .

‘I think there were signs of progression, but I think it’s also important to remember that, especially when it comes to football, progression is very rarely linear,’ Joey Lynch (ESPN, The Guardian) told Box2Box.

‘Whereas we’ve seen signs of progression regarding patterns of play and some of their intentions under Joe Montemurro, he is effectively still in his bedding-in period as a new coach. He’s had very little time with this squad and very few international windows given the torturously long appointment process football Australia went through before identifying him.

‘So there are inevitably going to be ups and downs, moments of progression, followed by moments that appear to be regression. We saw that in the game against Korea Republic: moments of great promise, but once they received those two sucker punches just after halftime, bad habits crept back in.’

Should the Matildas lose on Friday they’ll not just suffer the ignominy of an early exit from a tournament in which they were expected to contend but be forced to scrap for their place at next year’s Women’s World Cup, playing other quarter-final losers for two further direct positions in Brazil.

Simultaneously, they’re just a win from automatic qualification. It could be argued that hugely important achievement could somewhat soothe any potential negative outcome for the remainder of the Asian Cup.

But were these expectations fair in the first place? And to what extent has the rare romance of winning a major title at home – as the 2015 Socceroos ultimately did – clouded fair judgement over what Montemurro should be able to achieve, despite the wealth of experience he has at his disposal?

‘I think [Montemurro] was frustrated (on Sunday) and I think he was perturbed, and I think we need to realise that he’s under significant pressure coming into the tournament. But if this tournament wasn’t being staged in Australia, you’re looking at the Matildas’ campaign and describing it as a stepping stone towards the 2027 World Cup.

‘However, because Australia is hosting it, narrative factors have completely changed the dynamics through which we are judging this campaign – and by extension, are judging Montemurro and the job he does.

‘So, invariably, he’s feeling added pressure that he would not normally be feeling at this point of his tenure if this Women’s Asian Cup was being staged in Thailand, Japan or South Korea. So I think there’s probably an element, even if it’s subconscious, of that bleeding into his demeanour.’